Explainable predictions

See the match beforeit’s played.

Pick any fixture for a clear forecast — win probabilities, the likely scoreline, who scores, and the reasoning — built on real World Football Elo, live squads and injuries.

Predicted result—

ArgentinaElo 2113

1–1

FranceElo 2081

Argentina41%

Draw26%

France33%

Argentina xG1.4

Confidence64%

France xG1.2

RatingsLive Elo ratings

SquadsEstimated strength

Lineups—

Research—

The breakdown

Elo-driven model

Analyst brief

Argentina (Elo 2113, #2) meet France (Elo 2081, #3).

Argentina are the rated favourite — Elo 2113 (rank #2) to France's 2081 (rank #3), a 32-point gap.

The gap is narrow, so game state and fine margins decide more than raw quality.

Chance quality leans on Lionel Messi for Argentina and Kylian Mbappe for France.

Likely-scorer estimates move with the confirmed XI and penalty-taker assignment.

Model signals

Strength (Elo)

Argentina 2113 (#2) vs France 2081 (#3).

Chance quality

Expected goals model at 1.4 to 1.2 from the Elo gap.

Squad data

Squads estimated — connect API-Football for live rosters.

Confidence

64% from the rating gap and how much live data backs the call.

Likely scorers

Kylian MbappeFrance

28%

Lionel MessiArgentina

26%

Scoreline distribution

1-1

13%

1-0

10%

0-1

2-1

Squad snapshot

Argentina

2113

World Elo2113

Rank#2

Squadestimated

Likely shape · 4-3-3

Lionel MessiForward

likely

Julian AlvarezForward

likely

Squad snapshot

France

2081

World Elo2081

Rank#3

Squadestimated

Likely shape · 4-2-3-1

Kylian MbappeForward

likely

Ousmane DembeleForward

likely

Lineup sensitivity

What would change this prediction?

Confirmed starting XI and late fitness newsUnexpected rotation in midfield or fullback rolesEarly yellow cards to high-leverage anchorsPenalty-taker assignment and set-piece routines

Title odds

Real Elo · all 48 teams

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Group stage

All 12 groups · Elo estimates

Every real 2026 group, all matches, with an Elo-based estimate per fixture. Top two advance.

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Research sources

Live model

World Football Elo ratings power this prediction.